Yes, the housing market in Central Florida will crash. Many parts of Central Florida are already seeing major price reductions. However, the stronger markets like Tampa and Orlando typically fair the best. What to expect? We will cover some details and possibilities below. No pundit is always correct.
Two factors are having a strong effect on the median sale price of a home nationally. The end of the remote workforce and the AirBnB selloff as fewer people have money for travel and vacation rentals because of inflation and the cost of credit. As these homes begin to show up as for sale many will be placed on the rental market.
This will probably effect corporations profit from rental communities that they have purchased. As bond prices increase ( treasuries) many of those corporations will sell their homes and simply invest in treasuries. Their is no big conspiracy it is all about profit.
Expect new home construction to slow. Expect new homes to be sold cheaper which will of course have a negative effect on the prices of existing single family homes. The Florida housing market will however do better than many parts of the country even as interest rates rise.
One of the advantages of the FL housing market that will benefit housing prices is a strong job market. Another item of interest and is often overlooked is Florida is just a better place to live than most of the country. Many people move here from all over the world. It helps to live in a state that is interesting, has attractions and does not oppress it's citizenry.
Home Values are already declining in the less interesting areas of Florida. The Orlando housing market is still surprisingly steady and the Orlando area has a decent job market. Orlando's housing market is always going to be large even if prices decline for a short while. Windermere FL, Winter Garden FL, Dr Phillips and Lake Nona are always going to fair better than average and all of these are in the Orlando Metropolitan area.
Once again the volume is fairly high. People from all over the world want to move to the best parts of Florida. Tampa Bay has a lot to offer so people are always going to want to move here. Expect some decline in home prices in the best neighborhoods.
However, north of I-4 may be more interesting to watch and the condo market along the west coast or gulf coast beaches may take a hit as discretionary funds for tourism decrease. But then again, potential homebuyers will be watching these areas closely.
These two markets are not fairing that well. I believe of the two I prefer Lakeland at least long term. for those who are not aware the Villages is the worlds favorite retirement community and I believe it of over 40 square miles of homes and golf courses. Lakeland FL is between Orlando and Tampa. Unfortunately for residents Lakeland just is not interesting. Hence the housing market there is not and will not fair well in the year ahead nor has it in the year prior.
Absolutely it will in certain locations and for a limited time. There is a saying that no one rings the bell when the market bottoms. And there is another that hogs get fat but pigs get slaughtered. Watch closely and buy long term. I seriously doubt that homes that currently cost $400,000 will not someday cost a million. The government will at some point make sure of that by printing money. Higher interest rates will not deter home sales in Miami, Tampa or Orlando forever.
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